Regional Preview Pt. 1
Who will claim the first spots for Nationals?
Well would you look at the time?! NIRCA Regional meets are finally upon us! The Mid-Atlantic and Great Plains will be the first regions to try and claim the spots in the Championship Race at Nationals! We’ll try to highlight all of the top storylines heading into these two Regions as several of the top teams in the country will look put in one last performance before Nationals.
Due to NIRCA rules, any team that competes in the Heartland Regions are allowed to directly enter into the Championship Race at Nationals. As a result, Arkansas and Texas already are set to race. That being said, Arkansas is set to compete at the Great Plains Region this weekend.
No poll for this week :( Instead we’re doing something a little different. We’re making our predictions as to which teams will qualify for the Championship Race at Nationals! Who did we get right? Who will surprise us? Let us know! If you want to get involved with the Coaches’ Poll, we have an information packet here if you are interested in learning more. In that packet we have information on how to join the Coaches’ Poll and the planned dates for the polls. So if you want to join, feel free!
Don’t forget to check out the National Running Club Database! If you want to find the meet results from this season (because very few of them are on NIRCA’s website), you can check them out on the Database! It is an on-going project by our founder Jonathan Karr to have all of the club results in one convenient spot. There are sure to be a few meets we missed on the Database, but you can add it and it will be included! More information about that can be found on the Database website.
Mid-Atlantic
The Mid-Atlantic once again returns to Lehigh, Pennsylvania for the Regional meet in what promises to be a big, competitive meet. On the men’s side, there are 20 complete teams with 347 athletes. The women’s race isn’t as big with only 13 complete teams with 210 athletes. Despite being down 5 teams from last year, this is still a stacked race as there are 7 ranked teams. Due to the size of this region, it gets the most bids into the Championship race, with 10 on the men’s side and 9 on the women’s. If recent history is anything to go off of, something dramatic is bound to happen at this meet.
Team Race
Men
Last year, the Virginia Tech Hokies ran away with this meet putting up an absurd team score of just 17 points, led by the individual champion in Samuel Yakulis. The Hokies have once again been one of the most dominant teams in the country after cruising through their home meet and taking a commanding victory at the VCU Invitational. They look to be taking no chances this week as they are set to race all of their top runners in defense of their title. There realistically is only one team that could spoil the party for the boys from Blacksburg, but a lot would have to go right. That team is the only one that can claim a victory over Virginia Tech over the last several years from this region: UVA. As the Cavaliers took down a short handed Hokie squad at the Cavalier Invitational early in the season. Outside of these two Commonwealth schools, we have a resurgent Penn State squad. After taking the 9th (of 10) spots for the Championship race last year, the Nittany Lions have put together some good performances led by several newcomers. Racing in their home state might give them some good luck. Maryland came into this year with high expectations after finishing 10th at Nationals last year and returning a good portion of their squad; however, the Terrapins haven’t quite been able to fully live up to the hype. That being said, all they need is one great race to put them back into contention as one of the top teams. One of the biggest wildcards heading into this meet is Princeton. They have one of the faster runners in the Region with Ruaridh Mon Williams. They are also fielding double the squad that we have seen up to this point in the season. They could surprise some people if they have some depth. JMU put together some good performances early in the season, but they have fallen off since the Carolina XC Classic. This week, they only have 5 men entered and neither of them are their top guys: George Austin III or Patrick Gaffney.
Predictions
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Penn State
Women
This might just be the race of the weekend. The Mid-Atlantic Women have FIVE teams ranked in the Top 10 Nationally. We anticipate this to be a very close team race as almost all of the top contenders will be missing key pieces of their lineup. UVA has been on a tear this season, taking wins at the Cavalier Invitational and the VCU Invitational. But for the second year in a row, they will be without some of their top runners. Most notably, they do not have Gabby Santucci listed on their lineup. She took home the win at the Cavalier Invitational and was runner-up at VCU. This is a big loss for the Cavs as she was a lock for a top 5 spot. Without their ace, this becomes a much tighter team race as they are almost deadlocked with Georgetown, Penn State, and Virginia Tech. These four teams are very well balanced in terms of depth and firepower as their season’s best averages are within seconds of each other. The team title really well could come down to who wants it most. One team that is flying under the radar is the Princeton Tigers. Their squad features 4 women who have run sub-23. If their 5th can keep it close, watch for Princeton to surprise everyone. We highly anticipate this race coming down to the 5th runner and every. point. counts.
Predictions
Princeton
UVA
Georgetown
Individual Race
Men
This individual race will be very interesting. Last year it looked like a workout day in Blacksburg with all of the Virginia Tech runners flooding the top 10. This time around, they might be challenged a little for the top spots. Jackson Martingayle comes in with 2 big meet wins from the Cavalier Invitational and VCU Invitational. His two teammates, Cayden Stoner and Victor Kering, have both had a great first year in NIRCA (freshman year for Cayden, D3 grad transfer for Victor). Then we have the aforementioned Ruaridh Mon Williams who ran 25:55.7 at the always competitive Lock Haven Invitational back in late September. Finally we have the Virginia Tech squad. At their 3 meets this season, they have had 3 different top runners: Harris Naseh, Chris Nunn, and Noah LeCain. And let’s not forget about last year’s champ in Samuel Yakulis. The Hokies have 4 runners who have a legit shot at taking this individual title. Penn State also has a few freshmen in Sam Endres and James Behrend who could stick their nose in the top pack. With this many high-caliber runners going head-to-head, we expect a fantastic race up front.
Predictions
Jackson Martingayle - UVA
Noah LeCain - Virginia Tech
Samuel Yakulis - Virginia Tech
Cayden Stoner - UVA
Harris Naseh - Virginia Tech
Women
This race will feature several frontrunners who haven’t faced each other all season. Out of Georgetown, we have the highest returner from last year in Jane Smith who has picked up 2 wins this year at the DC and VCU Invites. Both wins were in dominating fashion as she led basically wire to wire. We haven’t really seen her tested at all this year, but she will definitely be tested this week. Enter Rebecca Cunningham from Princeton. She has the 2nd fastest time in the country with her 21:18.27 performance from the Lock Haven Invitational. Also from that meet was Rebecca’s teammate, Anita Miller, and Pitt’s Scarlett Singleton. Both runners ran under 22:30 to establish themselves as some of the fastest in the region. Without Gabby Santucci, the Cavaliers will rely on Beall Roberts to secure a low stick spot. She had a bit of a breakout track season and has carried that momentum to the grass as she has 2 Top 5 meet finishes this season. Speaking of top meet finishes, Virginia Tech will be needing something big out of their front runner, Addie Brinkley. She has 2 Top 3 finishes so far and has shown that she is not afraid to push the pace from the front. This is a very strong and fast group of women. Who’s going to be the one to break away and secure that top spot?
Predictions
Rebecca Cunningham - Princeton
Jane Smith - Georgetown
Anita Miller - Princeton
Beall Roberts - UVA
Scarlett Singleton - Pitt
Great Plains
The Great Plains might be a smaller region, but that doesn’t make it any less exciting. We have 8 men’s and 5 women’s teams vying for the limited qualifying spots for the Nationals Championship race. There are 5 spots for the men and 4 spots for the women at stake this Saturday in Iowa. There are an unfortunate number of teams that only have 4 runners, mainly on the women’s side, making that team race a little more cut and dry. That being said, the battle for that final spot should be exciting!
Team Race
Men
The men’s team race in the Great Plains will be a close one with only 5 spots up for grabs. We anticipate it being very close between Wisconsin and Illinois, as it usually is. Both of these teams are coming off different types of results. Wisconsin is coming off their annual fast meet at the Gene Davis Invitational that saw most of their athletes post fast times. Whereas Illinois is coming off the Irish Invitational where the Illini averaged 24:30ish over a 7.6k course. Based on our projections, these two teams are very evenly matched. Wisconsin arguably has the better top 2 runners in Adam Kitay and Mason Weber, but Illinois showed that they still have the depth we come to expect from this powerhouse team. In a pure dual meet, these teams might tie. Where things get interesting is when you add in the squads from Iowa State, Missouri, and Northwestern. All of these squads have some runners that can factor into the race, especially in that 10-20 range where most meets are decided by. Iowa State is showing some semblance of the old Cyclones team that used to dominate NIRCA in the 2010s. We expect Iowa State and Missouri to take the 3rd and 4th bids from this region, but that 5th spot is up for grabs. Northwestern started the season late and have been a little shaky despite the number of returners they have. Minnesota, on the other, has raced often but with inconsistent results. They had promising results at the Gene Davis Invitational, so they could be in a better position to claim that final spot. Wisconsin and Illinois might be cheering for these other teams to help provide a buffer between their squads.
Predictions
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa State
Women
We hope you like good races for 2nd, because that is what this race will be! The Wisconsin women have been the dominant force in NIRCA the last couple years, and this year is no different. What will be worth watching is just how hard Wisconsin decides to push. In what will probably be a distant 2nd, we should have a close race between Illinois and Minnesota. Illinois has two great front runners in Joy Dudley and Claire Casiello who should feature in the Top 10, but the gap back to the rest of their lineup has been a concern all season. Minnesota is honestly in a similar position, where most of their lineup has recorded their best times at different meets making it difficult to compare. That being said, in a field of only 74 athletes and only 5 complete teams, it becomes a little easier to get away with larger gaps between runners. One team that could really throw a wrench in people’s plans is Missouri. They haven’t raced many 6k’s this season, but they have been running very well over 5k. The Tigers are in a similar situation as the Illini and Gophers in terms of how their rosters shake out: good front 2 runners, shaky depth. The positioning of the final teams very well might come down to whose 3-5 runners really step up in Iowa. The only other team that has enough runners to score is Northwestern. They have just enough runners to form a team at 5, so they don’t have the extra buffer in case one of their runners has an off day. They do have a good front runner in Kasia Ostrowski, however, so there’s still a fighting chance for the Wildcats.
Predictions
Wisconsin
Illinois
Missouri
Individual Race
Women
There’s going to be a whole lot of red up at the front of this race. The runner-up from Nationals last year, Dasha Vorontsov, has been unstoppable all season as she has run several of the fastest times in the country. She should be the favorite not only to win this meet but Nationals as well. She could be challenged for the first time all season as Arkansas’s Abigayle Money is entered to race. While she hasn’t run a 6k yet, the Razorback grad student has been on fire over 5k. Her season’s best was on a hot day at the Chile Pepper Invitational where she ran 17:45.9. Let’s not forget the other top Wisconsin runner, Leah Remiker. It was unknown if she was competing this year, but she quickly put those rumors to bed after a strong 2nd place finish at the Border Battle. Add in two more Wisconsin runners, Anna Nguyen and Claire Matthai, who both popped off at the Gene Davis Invite, and that makes for quite a lot of red at the front. Most likely, that top pack will be made up of these athletes, but there are a few more who could sneak in. Claire Casiello and Joy Dudley are Illinois’s top runners and have proven such throughout the season. They’ll need to secure top finishes to guarantee the Illini make it to Nationals. Minnesota’s Chloe McCormick and Megan Cunningham and Iowa State’s Kyra Martin are 3 runners with the capability of securing Top 10 finishes. While the Cyclones don’t have enough runners to score as a team, Kyra could still qualify as an individual if she places in the Top 15. The two Minnesota runners will also be looking to secure a low spot to help lead their team to Nationals.
Predictions
Dasha Vorontsov - Wisconsin
Abigayle Money - Arkansas
Leah Remiker - Wisconsin
Claire Matthai - Wisconsin
Anna Nguyen - Wisconsin
Men
The men’s individual race, like the team race, is pretty wide open. There are probably 5 guys who have a legit chance of winning this race based on how they have been running as of late. Starting with the “favorite” purely based on time is Matthew Griffith from Missouri. He has been running very well this season, twice going under 26 with his season’s best notched at 25:20.7 from the Gans Creek Classic. The Tigers will need him and Noah McMullen to have a good race in order to qualify for Nationals. Noah had a great performance at the Gans Creek Classic but has been quiet since then. He’ll have his hands full as a pair of Wisconsin runners just recently dipped under 26 minutes as well. Adam Kitay and Mason Weber ran in the 25:30s at the Gene Davis Invitational just last week so we know they are in good form heading into this weekend. The two Wisconsin heavy hitters also have the team win on the line, so they’ll have extra motivation to race to the line. Let’s not forget about Ethan Forsell, the Illinois veteran has been a staple at the front of cross country races since he was a freshman. He’s consistently in the Top 5, can this finally be the year he takes home the title? The Illini will be relying on Ethan to come up big if they want a shot at the team win. The man who could play spoiler to everyone is Iowa State’s Adrian Welton. He picked up a big win at the Border Battle as he took down the Wisconsin duo head-to-head. Two weeks ago, he backed up his win with an impressive 25:42.0 at the Dan Huston Invite. He’s competing in the home state (and on enemy turf) so he might have extra motivation to run well.
Predictions
Adam Kitay - Wisconsin
Matthew Griffith - Missouri
Adrian Welton - Iowa State
Ethan Forsell - Illinois
Mason Weber - Wisconsin
These regionals are going down this Saturday in Pennsylvania and Iowa! Stay tuned as we will do our best to provide some content about how the meets are going! The post-season has finally arrived! We hope you are as excited for it as we are!