NIRCA Regional Preview Part 1

Enter Unreasonably Speedy........

CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON HAS FINALLY ARRIVED!! 

It seemed like yesterday that the 2023 XC Season kicked off, but we are finally here! This Saturday, Regional meets kick off in the Pacific, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic Regions! With Nationals looming in the not-so-distant future, the top teams are looking to establish themselves as podium contenders while new teams are looking to make a name for themselves.

So tighten up those spikes and embrace the #midwesttoughness as we break down the main storylines to follow this weekend. 

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PACIFIC

The Pacific Region is often the one with the most questions around it. Between not starting classes until much later than everyone else and not having that big of a NIRCA presence, we don’t see much of these teams until the postseason. That being said, the Pacific teams have definitely been putting in the work this fall (check the results page if you don’t believe me). Two of the most active clubs on the west coast, Oregon and Oregon State, have been battling it out all fall with fantastic performances by Oregon State’s Alden Roy and the entire Oregon women's team. Unfortunately, with Regionals held in San Luis Obispo, California, we won’t see anyone from the Beaver State.

But don’t take that to mean we won’t see some great performances! San Luis Obispo is home to Cal Poly. All they did last weekend was put up a 25:16 and 24:35 Top 5 Average for the 8K and 6K, respectively, at the Santa Clara Bronco Invitational. They’ll be joined by fellow California schools of Stanford, UC Davis, UC Irvine, UCLA, and USC (the real one, sorry South Carolina) in a battle over 4 miles for the men and 5K for the women.

Individual Race

Men

We haven’t seen much of the Pacific schools outside of the Bronco Invitational, so individual predictions for this region will have to come from one meet and previous performances. That being said, Cal Poly has 5 guys ranked in the top 20 this season (Nathan Fedoroff, Patrick Goodrich, Aiden Boothby, Turner Hayes, and Tom Bell) any one of those guys have the potential to win this meet. Stanford comes in with 2 guys ranked in the top 50 (Michael Thorburn and Frank DeGuire) who could play spoiler to the chance of a Cal Poly sweep. This also doesn’t account for Cal Poly’s #1 last year at Nationals in Ben Geil. 

Predictions:

1. Nathan Fedoroff - Cal Poly

2. Patrick Goodrich - Cal Poly

3. Aiden Boothby - Cal Poly

4. Ben Geil - Cal Poly

5. Michael Thorburn - Stanford

Women

When just about half of the entries on the women’s side don’t have a result (that we have found) so far, it makes predictions fairly one-sided and limited. Stanford’s Lily Lyu and Anna Tavakolian are NOT on the entries list for the Pacific Region, which is a huge loss for the 15th ranked Cardinal, after being their 1 and 2 at the Bronco Invitational last weekend.  Instead, the ladies from Palo Alto will be led by Juliet Horenziak, who is projected to be 3rd this Saturday. She’ll be chasing a pair of Mustangs in Julia Bizik and Grace Murphy from Cal Poly who are both ranked in the Top 60 this year. There’s a wide spread between some of the top women at the Bronco Invitational, but that was over 6k. The women are racing a 5k this Saturday, so dropping that last k could make this a completely different race.

Predictions: 

1. Julia Bizik - Cal Poly

2. Grace Murphy - Cal Poly

3. Juliet Horenziak - Stanford

4. Una Griffith - Cal Poly

5. Nicole Morris - Cal Poly

Team Race

As previously mentioned, not much is known about these teams since they race unattached for most of the season. We only have confirmed results for 2 of the clubs, and with only 4 clubs on the men’s side and 3 clubs on the women’s side getting a bid into the championship race, it’ll be a battle for that last spot. If previous years are anything to go off of, this will be a two horse race between Cal Poly and Stanford.

Men’s and Women’s Predictions

1. Cal Poly 

2. Stanford

3. UC Davis

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NORTHEAST

_{Photo credits: Sean Ahearn, USATF Brown Bear Invitational}

The race up in Massachusetts will be a fun one to follow along this weekend. These teams know each other very well and have raced against each other frequently. They’ve seen each other at the Codfish Bowl, at the Brown Bear Classic, at the UConn Autumn Invite, and now they’re seeing each other again in the hopes of claiming a Regional title. Every time these schools race, it’s an extremely tight race. 

Individual Race

Men

The individual title should be a given with Nicolas Ferretti being ranked in the Top 10 Nationally this year and already putting up two sub 25:30 times this year. That being said, he was upset by Colin Slavin last weekend at the UConn Autumn Invitational. Slavin has repeatedly shown that he is a very consistent runner and could contend for the title if Ferretti struggles. Next we have a pair of runners who have quietly put together a great season, Ryan Kittredge and Lucas Corea hold season’s best of 26:25 and 26:27, respectively. If they’re having a good day, they should be Top 5 locks. One runner who could surprise the field is Owen Wollenberg, he has slowly been cutting his times down all season and don’t forget he finished 4th at Track Nationals in the 1500m. Don’t count him out if it’s close at the end.

Predictions:

1. Nicolas Ferretti - Northeastern

2. Colin Slavin - UConn

3. Ryan Kittredge - Boston College

4. Lucas Corea - Cornell

5. Owen Wollenberg - UConn

Women

Battle in the Northeast this season has been a three women show. Kathryn McCarthy, Reagan Shae, and Leann Lombardi are all ranked in the Top 25 Nationally this year with season’s best almost a minute faster than the rest of the field. That being said, don’t count out Charlotte Tysall from Cornell. Not only is she the reigning champ from last year, she’s also the reigning 3000m Steeplechase Champion (11:47.0) and the Runner-Up in the 1500m (4:46.99) from Track Nationals this past Spring. The top spots from the Northeast will be split between the veteran upperclassmen and the upstart underclassmen.

Predictions:

1. Kathryn McCarthy - Northeastern

2. Shae Regan - Northeastern

3. Charlotte Tysall - Cornell

4. Leann Lombardi - UMass Amherst

5. Hayley Norton - UMass Amherst

Team Race

Every time these teams race each other, the races get even more exciting. Now, with a Regional title on the line, our excitement is bubbling over!

Men

When I say it is going to be a close race, it is going to be a CLOSE race. Our current power rankings have the Top 3 teams separated by FIVE points and the Top 4 separated by 14 points. That’s it. Ultimately, this race isn’t going to be determined by who has the best front runner, but who has the best depth. It’s almost impossible for 5 guys to all have a good race on the same day, much less 7. Most of the top teams in the Northeast are solid through 4 runners, they’ll all need their 5, 6, and 7 to step up in order to make a run for this Regional Crown. So let’s break it down. Northeastern is the reigning National Champions, but they lost too many to contend, right? Right?! Ferretti & Co might have something to say about that. UConn is a powerhouse on the track, but we’re on the grass right now. We know they’re the Huskies, so let’s see that dog in them! Cornell is one of the quietest but most consistent teams the past two years and they have been trending in the right direction. Is this finally the year they put it together? Boston College has been very close through 4 this year, but it takes 5 runners to win. Will the Eagles fly to a title this year?

Predictions:

1. UConn

2. Cornell

3. Northeastern

Women

The women’s race is likely to have less frantic counting and keeping track of everyone’s 3, 4, and 5, but it will have just as exciting as the men’s race. Northeastern walks runs into this meet with a veteran heavy squad that features several seniors. This could be their last shot at winning a team title. With so much attention on their men’s team the past few years, it’s their turn to be in the spotlight. With a Top 5 average almost a minute faster than the rest of the field, they should be the clear favorites. But clear favorites are boring and underdogs provide excitement! There are several teams who look poised to potentially pull an upset. UMass-Amherst is the only other team from the Northeast to have multiple women ranked in the Top 100 Nationally this year, but they’ll need the rest of their line up to step up in a big way if they want to pull the upset. Boston College has the second best Top 5 average in this region and has shown strong packing running so far this year. Could their pack be what carries them to an upset victory? Cornell comes in ranked third in our power rankings for the Northeast, it’ll take extremely strong races from this team to pull off an upset. But they pulled off the win last year, so if any team can find a way, it’s them.

Predictions: 

1. Northeastern

2. Boston College

3. Cornell

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MID-ATLANTIC

The Mid-Atlantic is an interesting region to cover because of how many schools are in this region and how rarely all these teams race each other. A whopping 10 teams on the men’s side and 9 teams on the women’s side qualify for the Championship Race at Nationals. With over 600 athletes scheduled to compete, the races will be big and oh boy will they be fast. Both the men’s and women’s side feature several Top 25 ranked teams. (Here’s to hoping we’ll actually get official results on the men’s side this year!)

Individual Race

Men

Lehigh is a fast course with the Top 7 from last year running sub 26 (unofficially, but Strava says so). We have an interesting split between the southern and northern teams in the Mid-Atlantic due to the range of courses available for them to run on. On paper, the individual race should be a two man race between Nolan Pernia (the highest returner from last year) and George Austin III, as they are the only athletes in this region sub 26 this season. However, we have a whole pack of runners from the state of Virginia who are capable of ripping a fast time on a good 8k course. Samuel Yakulis, Austin Molitor, and Alec Venable are the next top returners from last year’s meet and have been looking to be in good form this year. Eli Cook, Sam Fields, and Day Leone all hold season’s bests under 26:40. If the weather holds off, we could be in for a treat with the individual race.

Predictions:

1. Nolan Pernia - Pitt

2. Samuel Yakulis - Virginia Tech

3. George Austin III - JMU

4. Noah LeCain - Virginia Tech

5. Alec Venable - Virginia Tech

Women

This will be a fun race to watch up front, with 2 Top 10 Nationally ranked runners in Jodi Patterson and Caroline Beard. After these two, there are NINE more women ranked in the Top 50 Nationally: Anna Rigby, Amelia Devan, Alyssa Fedorshak, Eden Michael, Sydney Smith, Ella Synder, Lisa de Groot, Jocelyn Hurst, and Meghan Ostertag. All of those women have run sub 24 this season, and on Lehigh, even more could definitely join them. With four of the Top 5 finishers from last year return, this will be a crazy race up front!

Predictions:

1. Eden Michael - Princeton

2. Jodi Patterson - Penn St

3. Anna Rigby - Virginia Tech

4. Caroline Beard - Pitt

5. Alyssa Fedorshak - Penn St

Team Race

Last year there were dramatic timing errors on the men’s side causing us to not officially know who the top teams were. Those top teams will definitely be looking for revenge after being snubbed of a title.

Men

On paper, this race looks much closer than it is. The predicted score shows ONE point separating the top two teams. Maryland has one of the best 1-4 spreads of any team at 16 seconds, but a 46 second gap back to their 5th runner doesn’t bode well in a championship race. If their 5th runner has the race of his life, we could be smelling upset with that strong pack up front. Pitt won this meet 2 years ago on the backs of a strong team putting 7 in the Top 17, but that was 2 years ago. They have an individual title contender and a strong 2nd runner, but a several minute spread between their top 5 hurts their chances at reclaiming this title. Maybe some home state magic can propel them to a title. Virginia comes into this meet in an interesting spot. They started off the season a little rocky but have slowly gained momentum in their last 2 races. Hopefully 3 races in a row won’t cook their legs too much. The last team to highlight is Virginia Tech, the 3rd place team from XC Nationals last fall in Richmond. This team returns 6 of their 7 runners from that Nationals team last year and have only added more. They are undefeated heading into this meet and look poised to continue their streak.

  Predictions:

1. Virginia Tech

2. Maryland

3. Virginia

Women

The top 2 teams in this region have separated themselves from the field. Penn St comes into this meet with an astonishing 23:28 Top 5 average with 4 women under 24 this season. Virginia Tech, however, is the reigning champs and had the highest finish (5th) at Nationals last fall of the Mid-Atlantic teams. It’ll be a very close battle between these two teams. The battle for 3rd will be a tight race with 4 teams in contention. Virginia started off the season strong, with a commanding victory at the Cavalier Invitational, but are missing several key runners this weekend and could struggle to recover. Pitt and William & Mary are essentially deadlocked in projected score (145-147) and Top 5 average (25:08-25:11), it’ll come down to the all important 5th runner to separate these two teams. Maryland is a team that does not have a true low stick but has shown incredible strength in their pack. If they can move that pack through the field, it’ll be a good day for the women from College Park.

Predictions:

1. Penn St

2. Virginia Tech

3. Pitt

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I could go on and on, but speculating will only further drive me insane. Now we just have to wait and see how the script plays out this weekend! Check back here for our Regionals Preview for the Southeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains next week!

From the Starting Line

We saw a need to create a NIRCA Coaches Poll and are excited to bring it to you! Jonathan Karr from Notre Dame reached out to other clubs with this idea, Ben Darden from Virginia Tech quickly joined, and 12 others followed with more to come. If your university doesn’t have a voting member, you can join the team on our website.

Over the course of the 2023 regular season, we have compiled results from 59 races. 2,843 results for 1,738 men and 1,530 from 995 women. That allowed us to compile rankings for 79 men’s teams and 61 women’s teams that we had results for. Who knew that NIRCA had so much depth?!

Now that the regular season is complete, it’s time to see everyone's success pay off at Regionals and Nationals. The postseason is here, let’s not take it for granted. Before you know it, the cross country season will be over, and it will be the last season for many of our seniors.

Good luck to all the racers this weekend!

Complete NIRCA Rankings can be found here

Complete Regional Predictions can be found here

Latest Rankings and website can be found here

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Post by: Ben Darden

Ranking Formulas by: Jonathan Karr

Rankings by: All Voting Members - you can join - see the website for the complete list and more info

© 2023 NIRCA Coaches Poll